So at the start of the year I made some bold predictions about the outlook of ecommerce in 2015. To be more precise, I made 11 predictions namely:

1. Channel-agnostic consumers require omni channel marketing
2. Big phones mean mobile traffic that converts
3. Deeper integration of Beacons & iBeacons with mobile
4. Retargeting: Audience Building is the New Listing Building
5. Holistic Cross Device Tracking
6. Email Marketing is Here to Stay…on smaller screens
7. More Marketplaces: Alibaba, Jet.com and Rakuten
8. Direct to Consumer (D2C) commerce
9. Indian eCommerce is Big; China is Even Bigger
10. Could Wearables Link Between eCommerce and the Physical World?
11. Crytocurrency: BitCoin eCommerce

Whilst a few of my predictions missed the mark, I was quite surprised to hit the mark on most predictions. Here is how I fared…
I’ll start with the first prediction:

1: Channel-agnostic consumers require omni channel marketing.

What I predicted:
“The identity of the channel doesn’t matter at all to an increasing number of consumers, but the identity of the brand.That, and the overall customer experience, will define success for a growing number of retailers in 2015.”

What happened:
This prediction was targeted more towards established retailers with both a brick and mortar presence and active online/mobile channels. Retailers such as House of Fraser, Argos and Macys that executed a truly channel agnostic omni-channel marketing strategy in 2015, have gone on to prove that consumers buy from trusted brands and experiences rather than through a preferred channel. So blending both the brick and mortar and online/mobile experiences were critical elements of retail success in 2015… They embraced technologies such as a single customer view, customer segmentation, unified loyalty programs, click and collect and highly functional mobile apps.
[fancy_box]This one hit the mark…[/fancy_box]

2: Big phones mean mobile traffic that convert.

My predictions:
“users of phablets behave more like users of tablets, less like traditional smartphone users, so it’s a distinction with a very real difference…2015 will be the year phablets get huge – in both senses.”

What happened:
Over the Thanksgiving & Black Friday shopping season, data collated by IBM showed that mobile and tablet devices accounted for well over half (54%) of traffic to their retail clients’ sites on Black Friday, up more than 16% year-over-year.  IBM data went unto further show that mobiles and tablets accounted for over a third of purchase i.e. 35% – a 35% Year on Year increase.
Adobe’s data showed a similar trend – sales from mobile devices:

[fancy_box]This one hit the mark…[/fancy_box]

3: Deeper integration of Beacons & iBeacons with mobile

My predictions:
“All these technologies are already in place, but in 2015 they’ll become more widespread and achieve ubiquity.”
What happened: Beacons and iBeacons didn’t take off in 2015 – so this is one of my predictions that did not hit the mark. Although Tesco and Unilever tied up in the summer of 2015 to launch an iBeacon campaign, the technology as a whole didn’t exactly take-off in 2015.
The challenge a lot of retailers have been facing, is getting customers to take out their phones whilst shopping in physical stores. Customers also need to have installed the mobile app for the store.
[fancy_box]This was a miss…[/fancy_box]

4: Retargeting: Audience Building is the New Listing Building

My predictions:
“I expect Facebook to close the gap by releasing a dynamic remarketing solution specifically for e-tailers. With the aid of deep machine learning and big data, Lookalike Audiences (Facebook) and Smart Lists (Google) will continue to become more accurate in targeting.”

What happened:
In February of 2015, Facebook released Facebook dynamic product adverts.  Marketers are able to upload their product catalog and create campaigns targeting certain products to specific audiences, or let Facebook automatically deliver the most relevant products to people. Products can be shown in single- or multi-product ad units.
[fancy_box]This one hit the mark…[/fancy_box]

5: Holistic Cross Device Tracking

My predictions:
“It will make a lot of sense if Facebook releases its version of Google Analytics as it is arguably rivals Google’s ‘active user’ database from Gmail/Google Services and Android sign ups.”

What happened:
Although Facebook launched a revamped Facebook insights dashboard, it did not release a website analytics platform similar to  Google Analytics in 2015. I am still quite bullish on Facebook investing more on web analytics using its facebook custom audience pixel.
[fancy_box]This was a miss…[/fancy_box]

6: Email Marketing is Here to Stay…on smaller screens

My predictions:
Email might have to adapt slightly, but there’s no doubt it’s going to remain a big hitter for marketers in 2015.

What happened:
All through 2015 ecommerce email marketing, continued to evolve from behavioural re-engagement to personalisation centred customer lifecycle email marketing based on a single customer view. According to Custora, email marketing was the biggest marketing channel on Black Friday, driving a quarter of all transactions.  Email drove 25% of all orders – more sales than any other channel.
[fancy_box]This one hit the mark…[/fancy_box]

7: More Marketplaces: Alibaba, Jet.com and Rakuten

My predictions:
“With more marketplaces comes more opportunity for traders to sell through multiple channels without, or in addition to, a dedicated website or microsite, and that’s likely to be another major 2015 trend.”

What happened:
Early on in March, Rakuten closed down Play.com in the UK,  Jet.com dropped its member ship fees in October and Alibaba broke its sales record by selling $8bn worth of products in 10 hours.

I however didn’t pick up on Amazon’s impressive run in 2015 with 44% of U.S. online shoppers  now beginning their ecommerce product searches on Amazon.com.
[fancy_box]kind off…[/fancy_box]

8: Direct to Consumer (D2C) commerce

My predictions:
“At the moment, the major beneficiaries of this have been people interested in getting high quality luxury or personal goods, like sunglasses, without paying inflated designer prices. But this business model is likely to spread, sometimes in tandem with the expanding market share of online marketplaces, in 2015.”

What happened:
Direct to Consumer (D2C) startups continued to attract investments in 2015 both from Angels/VCs and on crowdfunding platforms. Even established brands like Disney, Under Armour and Unilever saw some success through their direct to consumer channels.
[fancy_box]This one hit the mark…[/fancy_box]

9: Indian eCommerce is Big; China is Even Bigger

My predictions:
“Finally, though: in both countries, internet use is at barely 50% of the population. What will the ecommerce economy look like in a China with a purpose-built delivery infrastructure and smartphone use running near the USA’s 60+%? 2015 might be the year we start to find out.”

What happened:
Ecommerce in India continued to soar with Pricewaterhouse Coopers predicting that India will have a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% and cross the $100-billion mark over the next five years, from $17 billion at present. Although the Chinese economy is cooling off, Ecommerce in China showed no signs of abating as it grew by an astounding 31% in 2014, and although figure are not yet out for 2015, Alibaba’s impressive Single’s day record exemplifies the health of the Chinese ecommerce sector. It is worth noting that online retail penetration in China is still a meagre 11 percent.
[fancy_box]This one hit the mark…[/fancy_box]

10: Could Wearables Link Between eCommerce and the Physical World?

My predictions:
“For ecommerce this means greater access to consumers, but also the capacity interact online with customers who are physically in or near to a store. As wearables take off in 2015 we can expect to see their capacity to deliver unprecedented consumer access capitalized on by ecommerce marketers.”

What happened:
Although the long awaited Apple Watch and several other Android wearable devices were launched in 2015, there has been no direct impact on ecommerce as yet.
[fancy_box]This was a miss…[/fancy_box]

11: Crytocurrency: BitCoin eCommerce

My predictions:
“The caveat is that the currency is volatile at the moment but settling down as its adoption rate grows and major retailers have begun accepting it. It’s likely to play an increasing role in ecommerce in 2015 and the tipping point will come when a player like Amazon decides to accept it.”

What happened:
Although Bitcoin suffered a low valuation for much of 2015, mainstream bitcoin adoption persisted with etailers such as Rakuten, Overstock, Dell, Microsoft, Ebay, Subway, Victoria’s Secret, Zynga, Expedia.com and Etsy all accepting bitcoin as a payment option. Even Paypal extended their support for Bitcoin. Amazon and BestBuy still do not accept bitcoin….
[fancy_box]Kind off…[/fancy_box]

My Score

8 of my 11 or 72 percent of my predictions saw the light in 2015. Not too shabby…

I will be making some more ecommerce industry predictions for 2016 in a few days. 

(Photo credits: Kev Lewis via Flickr)